The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened higher and moved higher during the night session, breaking through the 330,000 yuan mark and maintaining a high-level sideways consolidation [SMM Tin Morning Brief].

December 12, 2025 SMM Tin Morning Briefing:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2601) opened higher and moved higher during the night session, breaking through the 330,000 yuan mark and closing at 331,910 yuan/mt, up 4.2% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) According to data from Cox Automotive, Tesla's (TSLA.O) U.S. sales fell to their lowest level in nearly four years in November, despite the company launching cheaper versions of its most popular EVs. Overall U.S. EV sales have been dampened since the Trump administration eliminated the $7,500 federal tax credit at the end of September. In response to falling demand, Tesla introduced simplified versions of the Model Y and Model 3 in October, priced about $5,000 lower than the previous base models. While demand for the standard versions was expected to support November sales, Cox data showed Tesla's total sales still fell nearly 23% YoY, dropping to 39,800 units from 51,513 units in the same period last year, the lowest level since January 2022. (2) Jingyu Co., Ltd. announced in the evening that the company, as the supplier, recently signed a tripartite agreement with an overseas PV enterprise and a domestic enterprise. Based on the tripartite agreement, the company recently signed a Procurement Contract with the purchaser, with a contract value of $28.5968 million (approximately RMB 202.3341 million). As the supplier, the company will provide the purchaser with automation equipment such as slicing machines, as well as slicing automation and diamond wire production lines. The company will recognize revenue after equipment acceptance. The contract fulfillment will not have a material impact on the company's 2025 operating results but is expected to have a positive impact on the company's future operating performance. (3) The latest data shows that in November, China's monthly auto production exceeded 3.5 million units for the first time, hitting a record high. Furthermore, in the first 11 months of this year, both auto production and sales exceeded 31 million units, up over 10% YoY. From January to November this year, both NEV production and sales approached 15 million units, up over 30% YoY. In terms of exports, NEV exports reached 2.315 million units, doubling YoY.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply is tightening overall in major producing areas like Yunnan. Production at most smelters is expected to be relatively stable in December. (2) Demand side: Orders have decreased significantly due to sluggish demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream procurement is cautious, and high prices are noticeably suppressing actual consumption. Limited boost from emerging sectors: Although increased AI computing power and growth in PV installations are driving some tin consumption, their current contribution scale remains small and insufficient to offset the gap left by declining consumption in traditional sectors.

Spot market: Trading in the spot market remained sluggish yesterday, with most traders reporting only about 10 mt of transactions. Customer inquiries were few, and attitudes towards the current high prices were wait-and-see. The significant rally during the night session further dampened spot market trading.

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